Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x748a…2df7 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-5%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$163
other 11% +$67
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.3%
≤30d 9 +72.3% +55.9% 33% 33% -22.9%
≤90d 11 +59.1% +43.9% 36% 27% -22.7%
all 11 +59.1% +43.9% 36% 27% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.9% 27% -22.7%
10% +30.1% 9% -30.1%
15% +17.6% 9% -36.8%
20% +6.0% 9% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage75d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $236 −$59 -25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 +$129 +1150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $64 +$7 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $143 +$22 +15%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 15 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $118 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $74 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $45 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $14 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $14 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $7 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $64 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $11 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $30 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $4 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records