Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x748a…3c56 world 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,641 (+1%) realized +$1,111 · open +$1,530
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%42W / 22L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,884per market
Trades / day110.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$32,852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$5,204
crypto 19% +$1,205
other 6% +$577
politics 3% +$305
finance 1% +$209
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.0% -4.1% 67% 50% -13.4%
≤30d 64 +25.2% +13.2% 66% 45% -6.2%
≤90d 64 +25.2% +13.2% 66% 45% -6.2%
all 64 +25.2% +13.2% 66% 45% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 45% -6.2%
10% +2.4% 30% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here -7.5% 20% -23.3%
20% -16.6% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,626) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$372 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$32,852
Realized+$1,111
Unrealized+$1,530
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses42 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions60
Markets (closed)64 / 112
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$1,884
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $4,592 $4,625 +$33 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $2,056 $2,221 +$166 (+8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 79¢ 89¢ $1,393 $1,567 +$174 (+13%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $1,332 $1,544 +$212 (+16%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,502 $1,535 +$33 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $1,331 $1,466 +$135 (+10%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 55¢ $1,491 $1,416 −$76 (-5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 64¢ 72¢ $1,225 $1,384 +$159 (+13%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $1,217 $1,200 −$17 (-1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,070 $1,122 +$51 (+5%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $925 $946 +$21 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 87¢ $817 $925 +$108 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 79¢ 84¢ $823 $878 +$55 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $811 $826 +$15 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 82¢ $805 $820 +$15 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $823 $816 −$7 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $790 $775 −$15 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 95¢ $485 $685 +$200 (+41%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $593 $580 −$12 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $584 $571 −$12 (-2%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $542 $551 +$10 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 54¢ 54¢ $538 $535 −$2 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $469 $475 +$6 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $418 $429 +$12 (+3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $468 $428 −$41 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,626 +$300 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $610 +$401 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $297 −$31 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $365 +$10 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $378 +$262 +69%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $656 +$108 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $110 +$144 +131%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $175 +$22 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $73 +$88 +120%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $421 −$396 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,118 −$240 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $4,910 +$355 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5,538 −$427 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $255 −$147 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $473 −$305 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $314 −$263 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $3,973 +$118 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,765 −$2,155 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,956 −$810 -41%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1,065 +$524 +49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $95 +$79 +83%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $224 +$98 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $876 +$121 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $88 +$26 +30%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $389 +$107 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $894 +$303 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,108 +$51 +5%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $479 +$21 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $396 +$49 +12%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $1,457 +$161 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $155 +$18 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $913 −$103 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$15 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,206 +$580 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $481 −$208 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,234 −$23 -2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,121 −$1,760 -83%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $612 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38,857 +$1,501 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $254 −$48 -19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $350 −$140 -40%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? Jun 03 $521 +$121 +23%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 03 $316 −$50 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $360 −$277 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10,000 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2,035 +$195 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43,527 +$2,001 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $869 +$160 +18%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $1,014 +$1,427 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $127 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $135 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $35 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $52 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $386 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $263 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $25 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $86 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 39m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $14 43m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $48 49m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $55 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $267 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $382 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $394 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $158 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $318 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $415 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $313 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,852.17 · official $32,852.17 (match) · 3500 history records