Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x748d…26e2 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,037 (-3%) realized −$1,020 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate82%46W / 10L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$959
14 days+$1,095
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$898
sports 31% −$2,249
politics 6% +$6
world 3% +$119
weather 2% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 71% +2.8%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 62% -8.5%
≤90d 56 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 59% -13.0%
all 56 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 59% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 59% -13.0%
10% -19.5% 30% -21.3%
15% -27.2% 4% -28.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$471 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$983
Realized−$1,020
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses46 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage59d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $983 −$17 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,003 +$95 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1,005 +$171 +17%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1,002 +$68 +7%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 09 $1,001 +$23 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,005 +$24 +2%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1,004 +$119 +12%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $302 −$300 -99%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $300 +$68 +23%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $302 −$300 -99%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $302 +$62 +20%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $302 +$73 +24%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $302 +$90 +30%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $301 +$32 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,295 −$877 -68%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $302 +$99 +33%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $303 +$32 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $302 +$78 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $502 +$31 +6%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $302 +$103 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $301 +$39 +13%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $302 −$300 -99%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $302 +$108 +36%
Will Livingston FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $302 +$74 +24%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $301 +$47 +16%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $302 +$64 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $101 +$27 +27%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $301 +$55 +18%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $802 +$82 +10%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $1,402 +$55 +4%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $302 +$92 +30%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $302 +$60 +20%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $300 +$82 +27%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Huzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Yexin Ma Apr 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FC Volendam win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $570 +$22 +4%
Exact Score: Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 0 Pisa SC? Apr 25 $800 +$58 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,004 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $1,098 23h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 29h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 86¢ $1,004 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? SELL No 100¢ $1,189 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY No 84¢ $1,005 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $1,135 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $1,004 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? SELL No 100¢ $1,175 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY No 85¢ $1,005 6d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,070 8d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,002 8d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $1,024 8d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 86¢ $707 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 86¢ $322 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 11d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 12d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 12d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY Yes 89¢ $1,004 17d
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 78¢ $302 17d
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 81¢ $300 19d
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 80¢ $302 21d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 100¢ $364 24d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 82¢ $302 25d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 80¢ $302 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $983.15 · official $983.15 (match) · 114 history records