Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x748e…d4ab other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$346 (-3%) realized −$345 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$993
14 days−$379
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,253
sports 22% +$880
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.8% -15.7% 41% 38% -32.3%
≤30d 66 +3.2% -6.7% 48% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 66 +3.2% -6.7% 48% 42% -12.6%
all 66 +3.2% -6.7% 48% 42% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 42% -12.6%
10% -15.6% 38% -21.0%
15% -23.7% 32% -28.6%
20% -31.2% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$73 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$345
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage12d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $56 +$89 +158%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $27 −$22 -82%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $252 +$76 +30%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $87 +$137 +158%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$15 -25%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $142 −$42 -30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$27 +87%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $259 +$75 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 $0 -12%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -76%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$39 +189%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$44 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$23 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $208 +$30 +15%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $138 +$63 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$21 +209%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $83 +$54 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$77 -76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $607 −$598 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,112 −$788 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,286 +$51 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$8 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -91%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $328 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 10h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 25h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $46 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $87 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $100 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.06 · official $19.06 (match) · 169 history records