Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x7492…584a other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$40
politics 24% −$5
sports 5% −$21
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 20% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -5.0% -14.1% 11% 7% -9.9%
all 109 -4.8% -13.8% 10% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 6% -9.9%
10% -22.1% 6% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 5% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 98
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage93d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $320 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $355 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $315 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $326 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $298 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $138 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $139 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $309 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $167 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 45h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $7 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $9 5d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.99 · official $118.99 (match) · 319 history records