Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x7492…6568 sports 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$223 (+2%) realized +$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%189W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$116
14 days−$108
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$263
other 2% −$60
crypto 1% −$51
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 23% -24.9%
≤30d 64 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 30% -12.9%
≤90d 227 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 44% -5.8%
all 416 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 43% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -8.2%
10% -21.9% 43% -16.9%
15% -29.4% 42% -25.0%
20% -36.3% 40% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses189 / 227
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions7
Markets (closed)416 / 423
History coverage148d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$13 -38%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$4 -17%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$35 +86%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$29 +114%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$14 +442%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 +$31 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $22 9m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 11m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 15h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 21h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $16 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.68 · official $108.68 (match) · 945 history records