Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7492…1e71 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$977 (+16%) realized +$952 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$213
14 days+$216
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$405
sports 28% +$1,511
other 15% −$128
crypto 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +84.9% +67.3% 100% 100% +67.3%
≤30d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 30% -7.5%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 35% +6.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 35% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 35% +6.6%
10% -18.2% 25% -3.6%
15% -26.1% 25% -13.0%
20% -33.4% 20% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$66 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized+$952
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage82d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $151 $135 −$16 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $250 +$213 +85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $17 +$24 +139%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,060 +$9 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $750 −$22 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $156 +$69 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 29 $101 −$7 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 19 $284 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 19 $253 +$32 +13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $501 −$122 -24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $591 −$222 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 17 $53 +$7 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $426 +$776 +182%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $100 −$92 -92%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $100 −$89 -90%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 07 $350 +$606 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $41 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $280 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $293 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $293 11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 53¢ $243 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $300 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $602 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $127 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $435 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $17 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $450 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $500 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 79¢ $225 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $156 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $157 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $30 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $140 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.42 · official $776.56 (match) · 75 history records