Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7493…fe92 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,592 (-2%) realized −$1,577 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%36W / 75L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$611est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$6,347
other 42% +$1,381
politics 6% +$2,711
crypto 5% −$1,083
world 1% −$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -22.0% -29.4% 26% 25% -29.1%
≤30d 109 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 30% -17.5%
≤90d 109 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 30% -17.5%
all 111 -4.3% -13.4% 32% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 32% -13.9%
10% -21.7% 30% -22.2%
15% -29.3% 29% -29.7%
20% -36.2% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,012) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$935 vs −$506 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1,577
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses36 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$611
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage614d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,519 −$1,496 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,971 −$1,962 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $199 −$199 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,173 +$697 +60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,830 −$415 -15%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $104 −$101 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $407 +$593 +146%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $657 −$640 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $100 +$566 +567%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $502 −$502 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $94 +$632 +669%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$95 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,000 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $730 −$730 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $728 −$728 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 22 $529 −$529 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $447 −$447 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $339 −$339 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2,160 −$1,898 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $675 −$675 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 22 $520 −$520 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,186 +$767 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $550 +$550 +100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,558 +$191 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,056 +$44 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $144 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $75 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,407 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,971 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $153 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $120 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $395 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $8 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $16 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,173 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $835 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $719 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $2 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $4 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $6 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $1,264 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,995 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $407 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 829 history records