Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7495…7fcf
other · 1009 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$23,386 +139%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,344 · open +$20,261
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53,732
Realized+$2,344
Unrealized+$20,261
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses125 / 92
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions496
Markets (closed)217 / 1009
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2746.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 496 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,344
7 days+$2,344
14 days+$2,344
30 days+$2,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 30¢ 94¢ $342 $1,054 +$712 (+208%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 14¢ 68¢ $172 $822 +$650 (+378%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 28¢ 74¢ $224 $591 +$367 (+164%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 15¢ 72¢ $120 $580 +$460 (+383%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 27¢ 94¢ $161 $554 +$394 (+245%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 9¢ 87¢ $53 $496 +$443 (+840%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 2¢ 62¢ $16 $493 +$476 (+2896%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 21¢ 68¢ $143 $466 +$323 (+226%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 16¢ 54¢ $129 $430 +$300 (+232%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 15¢ 50¢ $128 $421 +$293 (+229%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 52¢ $136 $412 +$276 (+203%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 6¢ 60¢ $40 $399 +$359 (+892%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 16¢ 49¢ $128 $392 +$264 (+206%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 24¢ 52¢ $181 $381 +$200 (+111%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 35¢ 95¢ $126 $342 +$216 (+172%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 3¢ 39¢ $25 $327 +$302 (+1193%)
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes 22¢ 64¢ $106 $310 +$204 (+193%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 11¢ 79¢ $43 $308 +$265 (+612%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 93¢ 96¢ $272 $279 +$7 (+3%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 39¢ 88¢ $122 $274 +$152 (+125%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $268 $266 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 38¢ 63¢ $159 $264 +$105 (+66%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $261 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $255 $259 +$4 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $293 $258 −$35 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$84 +257%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 14 $22 +$19 +85%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $223 −$23 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $248 +$22 +9%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Jun 14 $6 +$9 +165%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$32 +371%
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$18 +405%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 14 $57 +$13 +22%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? Jun 14 $102 +$81 +79%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -15%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$4 -18%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $26 +$54 +212%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $94 −$34 -36%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $264 +$36 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +51%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 14 $6 +$9 +162%
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +194%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$20 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $82 +$8 +10%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$30 +706%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $14 +$11 +78%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $32 +$55 +171%
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 14 $9 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +296%
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Douglas Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Danilo Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Matheus Cunha be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +218%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 14 $24 +$16 +68%
Will Gabriel Martinelli be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 69% +$19,977
world 15% +$1,327
politics 6% +$267
tech 4% +$117
sports 4% +$204
finance 1% +$98
culture 1% +$497
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2m
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2m
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $79 2m
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3m
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3m
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 3m
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 75¢ $3 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 71¢ $15 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 75¢ $4 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 75¢ $15 3m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4m
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $77 4m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 6m
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 12¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 6¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 60¢ $30 14m
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 9¢ $9 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +65.3% +49.5% 58% 44% +17.4%
≤30d 217 +65.3% +49.5% 58% 44% +17.4%
≤90d 217 +65.3% +49.5% 58% 44% +17.4%
all 217 +65.3% +49.5% 58% 44% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2746.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.5% 44% +17.4%
10% ← realistic here +35.2% 35% +6.2%
15% +22.1% 30% -4.1%
20% +10.2% 27% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,731.91 · official $82,326.39 · 3500 history records