Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7497…18ce sports 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%188W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$179
14 days−$124
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$56
other 24% −$79
crypto 11% +$31
world 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 46% -18.6%
≤30d 371 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 371 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -11.5%
all 371 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 49% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 48% -19.9%
15% -26.4% 46% -27.7%
20% -33.6% 41% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses188 / 183
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)371 / 373
History coverage23d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$17 +162%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $33 +$16 +47%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +63%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $20 +$19 +95%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 18 $25 −$5 -20%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $25 −$5 -20%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $20 −$5 -24%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +95%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $20 +$13 +63%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$63 +307%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 +$11 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$22 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +145%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $19 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $27 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $31 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $15 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 62¢ $19 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $21 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 37¢ $10 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 39¢ $5 3h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 85¢ $17 4h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 84¢ $33 5h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $20 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $87 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $28 22h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 50¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $29 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $20 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $20 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $20 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.85 · official $18.86 (match) · 630 history records