Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7498…59c6 crypto 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (746 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,221 (-35%) realized −$8,221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%38W / 116L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day745.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,556
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (746 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -32.2% -38.7% 25% 17% -46.2%
≤30d 154 -32.2% -38.7% 25% 17% -46.2%
≤90d 154 -32.2% -38.7% 25% 17% -46.2%
all 154 -32.2% -38.7% 25% 17% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover745.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 17% -46.2%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 12% -51.4%
15% -49.9% 12% -56.1%
20% -54.8% 10% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$137 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses38 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 118
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day745.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET Jun 18 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$31 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $683 −$225 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $370 −$352 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $152 −$109 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $155 −$149 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$121 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$30 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$180 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$320 +402%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $2,233 −$2,150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $960 +$1,267 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,021 −$965 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records