Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x749b…8b85 crypto 929 markets active 20h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%494W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$19
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$70
sports 6% −$4
other 5% +$11
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 45% -23.2%
≤30d 237 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 46% -19.4%
≤90d 430 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 47% -18.1%
all 929 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 51% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 51% -13.5%
10% -20.5% 47% -21.8%
15% -28.2% 39% -29.4%
20% -35.2% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses494 / 435
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)929 / 929
History coverage148d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 929 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2622 history records