Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x749d…1fb3 crypto 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,079 (-3%) realized −$3,049 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate62%169W / 102L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days+$462
14 days+$566
30 days+$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$73
other 27% −$711
politics 24% −$1,206
crypto 9% −$611
economics 4% +$8
culture 2% −$485
finance 1% −$292
tech 1% +$20
sports 1% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.7% -4.4% 89% 52% -1.1%
≤30d 53 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 34% -5.8%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 73% 29% -10.6%
all 271 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 20% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 20% -12.6%
10% -22.8% 9% -21.0%
15% -30.2% 6% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$78 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$4,363
Realized−$3,049
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses169 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)271 / 297
History coverage252d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $945 $941 −$4 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $791 $797 +$6 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $400 $425 +$25 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 72¢ $200 $231 +$30 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 76¢ $230 $223 −$7 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $160 $168 +$8 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 85¢ 92¢ $85 $92 +$7 (+8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $81 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 28¢ $120 $75 −$45 (-38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+56%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 96¢ 94¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $48 +$7 (+17%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 72¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 76¢ 16¢ $76 $16 −$60 (-80%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $1,122 +$177 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 17 $101 −$41 -41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $368 +$8 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,040 +$128 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $88 +$11 +12%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $135 +$24 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $180 +$45 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$30 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $139 +$36 +26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $205 +$42 +21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $83 +$17 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $186 +$21 +11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 10 $61 −$47 -78%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $327 +$37 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $143 +$57 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $168 +$32 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $171 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $193 +$7 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $390 +$10 +3%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $393 +$7 +2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $476 +$17 +4%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? May 31 $426 −$180 -42%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 28 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 28 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $83 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $27 −$16 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $96 +$4 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $779 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $100 2m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $142 54m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $80 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $76 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $90 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,299 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $100 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $106 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $130 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $100 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $82 8h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL No 55¢ $60 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $128 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $100 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $95 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $150 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $74 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 82¢ $50 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 92¢ $70 26h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $51 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $823 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $350 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,363.16 · official $4,363.69 (match) · 1634 history records