Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74a3…3b73 sports 492 markets active 6d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$821 (-1%) realized −$821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%276W / 216L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$557est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$215
14 days−$7,737
30 days−$6,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$2,971
other 19% +$690
crypto 16% +$643
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +68.4% +52.4% 58% 42% -22.6%
≤30d 239 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 36% -31.6%
≤90d 492 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 47% -11.5%
all 492 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -11.5%
10% -20.7% 37% -19.9%
15% -28.4% 30% -27.7%
20% -35.4% 21% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$78 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses276 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$557
Open positions0
Markets (closed)492 / 492
History coverage73d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 492 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $164 −$26 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$50 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $41 +$11 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $298 +$42 +14%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $82 +$191 +234%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $127 −$101 -80%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$3 +3%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $37 +$23 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $92 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $27 +$11 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 77¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1637 history records