Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x74a5…7af8 other 18 markets active 16h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% $0
sports 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +69.9% +53.7% 86% 86% +53.9%
≤30d 12 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% -14.9%
≤90d 12 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% -14.9%
all 13 +29.5% +17.2% 69% 69% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 69% -7.3%
10% +6.0% 62% -16.2%
15% -4.3% 62% -24.3%
20% -13.6% 31% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage158d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $75 $97 +$22 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $31 $13 −$19 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $9 −$2 -24%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $7 −$6 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $11 +$4 +39%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 15 $10 +$4 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $77 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 6d
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner BUY Rebels Gaming 40¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner BUY Rebels Gaming 55¢ $5 16d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL RUSTEC 100¢ $6 16d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY RUSTEC 83¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL RUSTEC 55¢ $6 17d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY RUSTEC 45¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 5¢ $1 17d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 19¢ $2 17d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 40¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu SELL Team Nemesis 71¢ $7 17d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu BUY Team Nemesis 53¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.70 · official $328.70 (match) · 47 history records