Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74a8…c0ac sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-2%) realized −$87 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$217
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$181
other 49% −$244
crypto 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 35 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 37% -11.2%
≤90d 35 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 37% -11.2%
all 35 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 37% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -11.2%
10% -24.5% 31% -19.7%
15% -31.8% 31% -27.4%
20% -38.5% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$46 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage13d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$90 +45%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $26 −$22 -86%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $882 −$11 -1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $755 +$128 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$57 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $253 −$225 -89%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $152 +$96 +63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$41 -81%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $112 −$5 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $253 +$157 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$11 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $121 −$6 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $202 −$11 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$75 -49%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $126 +$51 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $48 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes $3 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $871 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $882 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $883 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $755 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $51 7d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 8d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $36 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 9d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $28 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.47 · official $31.47 (match) · 68 history records