Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74aa…2c3f
sports · 216 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,855 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,019 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69
Realized−$2,019
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses66 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions8
Markets (closed)208 / 216
History coverage35d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 8 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,392
7 days−$4,554
14 days−$4,554
30 days−$4,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $42 $26 −$16 (-39%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 20¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-49%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-73%)
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-63%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? No 62¢ 56¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 70¢ 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? No 71¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 45¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? No 69¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A NRG 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Fisher College 6¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Nigma Galaxy 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend JD Gaming 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Fisher College 26¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? No 71¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BC.Game Esports 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$1 -1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$1 -3%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Jun 14 $168 −$45 -27%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $123 −$60 -49%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 14 $219 −$219 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$36 -93%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Jun 14 $120 −$116 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $281 −$281 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $328 −$328 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $75 −$69 -92%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 14 $323 −$323 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $703 −$703 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $398 −$398 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $668 −$668 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$1 -2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $41 −$10 -24%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 11 $11 −$7 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $63 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $54 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 10 $58 −$5 -9%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$3 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 10 $18 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$2,310
other 25% +$278
world 2% −$9
finance 1% −$15
weather 0% −$4
tech 0% −$11
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% −$16
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $7 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $2 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $10 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $2 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $2 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 51¢ $35 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $11 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $11 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $52 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $5 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $6 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $7 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $7 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $7 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $7 3h
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5h
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 5h
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -27.8% -34.7% 7% 1% -71.1%
≤30d 149 -18.4% -26.1% 24% 19% -36.1%
≤90d 208 -9.3% -18.0% 32% 28% -18.9%
all 208 -9.3% -18.0% 32% 28% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 28% -18.9%
10% -25.8% 23% -26.7%
15% -33.0% 17% -33.7%
20% -39.6% 13% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.51 · official $69.02 (match) · 717 history records