Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
74 0x74af…c7b4 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$10
world 8% −$23
other 7% −$7
weather 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.7% -22.8% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤30d 2 -14.7% -22.8% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤90d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 33% -19.3%
all 3 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 33% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 33% -19.3%
10% -17.1% 33% -27.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -34.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage61d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $1,035 $1,025 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $86 −$7 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $107 −$23 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Apr 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1,050 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $79 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $86 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $84 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $107 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? BUY No 74¢ $20 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.05 · official $1,025.05 (match) · 10 history records