Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74b2…e69f
other · 45 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$26 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$176 · open +$177
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,065
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$177
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage352d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 7 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $2,055 $2,184 +$129 (+6%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $700 $728 +$28 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+222%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Mar 27 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Mar 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Pakistan T20 Series: Pakistan vs South Africa (Nov 1) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $419 −$102 -24%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $40 +$1 +4%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 23 $2,193 +$116 +5%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 18 $301 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 11 $247 +$21 +9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 11 $78 +$5 +6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Feb 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jan 20 $210 −$2 -1%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Jan 01 $269 +$56 +21%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Dec 16 $85 +$9 +11%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $376 +$24 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 08 $110 −$6 -6%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 08 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 08 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Nov 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $129 +$5 +4%
Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30? Sep 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Sep 28 $120 +$2 +2%
AFD deaths foul play confirmed in 2025? Sep 24 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $200 +$3 +2%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Sep 08 $180 −$8 -4%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Sep 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Sep 03 $97 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Sep 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Aug 12 $60 −$21 -34%
Will Elon register the America Party in July? Jul 08 $42 +$23 +54%
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? Jun 28 $18 −$9 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$147
other 41% −$112
world 12% −$17
tech 2% −$29
culture 1% +$5
sports 0% +$17
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $100 28h
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 24¢ $54 15d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 30¢ $72 32d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $700 35d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $723 35d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 69d
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 97d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $56 97d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $641 99d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 63¢ $234 99d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 58¢ $84 100d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $323 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 83¢ $216 101d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $216 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 101d
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 98¢ $41 101d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 99¢ $11 101d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 99¢ $10 101d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 94¢ $9 101d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 101d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 101d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 96¢ $10 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 101d
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 94¢ $20 101d
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 94¢ $20 101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 38 -16.4% -24.4% 61% 13% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 13% -12.1%
10% -31.6% 3% -20.5%
15% -38.2% 3% -28.2%
20% -44.3% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,064.97 · official $3,064.97 (match) · 331 history records