Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x74b4…13c3 sports 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$5
world 33% −$3
other 19% +$5
politics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.9% -6.0% 75% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 5 +3.1% -6.7% 60% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 16 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -27.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -34.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -40.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage77d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $503 +$42 +8%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $499 −$3 -0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $471 +$29 +6%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $456 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $223 $0 -0%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 15 $480 +$10 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 14 $483 $0 +0%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) May 13 $480 +$25 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $479 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $467 −$3 -1%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Slovenia (-2.5) Mar 29 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $196 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $503 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $496 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $214 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY MASONIC 94¢ $471 5d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $463 5d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $456 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $134 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $135 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 40¢ $88 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $88 18d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $25 32d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $25 32d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $5 32d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $5 32d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $5 32d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $5 32d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 98¢ $480 34d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $483 34d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $483 34d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY Kahrabaa Ismailia FC 95¢ $480 36d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $479 36d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $479 36d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $463 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $467 40d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC $32 53d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC $33 53d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $12 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records