Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74b4…6bea other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41,106 (+6%) realized +$29,293 · open +$11,813
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate67%64W / 31L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$4,442per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$227,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$934
7 days+$1,372
14 days+$373
30 days+$2,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$13,611
other 27% +$8,236
world 12% −$3,865
politics 5% +$1,656
sports 2% +$1,134
tech 0% −$59
crypto 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -32.4% -38.9% 55% 10% -8.1%
≤30d 40 -13.6% -21.8% 68% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 95 -7.9% -16.7% 67% 18% -7.4%
all 95 -7.9% -16.7% 67% 18% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 18% -7.4%
10% -24.6% 9% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 6% -24.3%
20% -38.6% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,968) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$425 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$227,993
Realized+$29,293
Unrealized+$11,813
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses64 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions62
Markets (closed)95 / 148
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$4,442
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $20,494 $21,854 +$1,360 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 74¢ 86¢ $18,645 $21,802 +$3,157 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $15,792 $16,135 +$343 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $13,502 $13,541 +$39 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 95¢ 97¢ $11,827 $12,066 +$239 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 97¢ 98¢ $11,141 $11,239 +$98 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $9,408 $10,018 +$610 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $6,355 $7,293 +$938 (+15%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,644 $6,714 +$70 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,643 $6,691 +$48 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 87¢ 92¢ $6,067 $6,445 +$378 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $5,854 $6,241 +$387 (+7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $5,205 $6,022 +$817 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,470 $5,529 +$59 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,224 $5,366 +$142 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $4,427 $5,132 +$705 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,959 $4,050 +$91 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,731 $3,783 +$53 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,624 $3,695 +$71 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,387 $3,474 +$87 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 75¢ 99¢ $2,546 $3,336 +$790 (+31%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,844 $2,871 +$28 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,827 $2,861 +$34 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $2,420 $2,814 +$393 (+16%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,545 $2,607 +$62 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $1,549 −$1,640 -106%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Jun 17 $1 −$30 -5895%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 17 $251 −$131 -52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 17 $412 +$367 +89%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 17 $3,657 +$126 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $7,551 +$599 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 15 $19,449 +$551 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $28,390 +$1,010 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $675 −$349 -52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $520 +$422 +81%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $2,177 +$223 +10%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $1,692 +$276 +16%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 10 $69 +$1 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $3,736 +$167 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $750 +$28 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May? Jun 10 $528 +$2 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $132 −$25 -19%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Jun 10 $309 +$6 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $4,738 −$338 -7%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Jun 09 $538 +$6 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 09 $919 −$127 -14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 09 $3,161 −$738 -23%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 09 $411 +$104 +25%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 09 $35 +$24 +70%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? Jun 08 $587 +$50 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 05 $411 +$12 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $6,091 +$93 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $6,075 −$723 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $12,536 +$157 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $6,706 +$690 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $4,800 +$190 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $15,966 +$804 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? May 21 $543 +$12 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? May 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $12,717 +$884 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 18 $503 +$70 +14%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,406 +$110 +8%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,905 +$60 +3%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6,770 +$464 +7%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $358 −$92 -26%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $408 +$15 +4%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $7,507 +$659 +9%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $4,024 +$497 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $95 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $33 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $2,099 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $84 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $237 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $169 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $50 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $15 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2,699 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $82 6h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3,762 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $571 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $4,973 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $19 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $967 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $1,425 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $165 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $6 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $98 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $989 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227,992.71 · official $228,005.02 (match) · 3500 history records