Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x74be…b301 crypto 270 markets active 17h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate85%230W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$601
14 days−$701
30 days−$927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$491
weather 3% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 12% -78.9%
≤30d 86 -10.3% -18.8% 73% 26% -17.4%
≤90d 247 -1.5% -10.9% 87% 31% -9.4%
all 270 -2.9% -12.2% 85% 33% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 33% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 6% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$101 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses230 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage101d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$6 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $234 −$175 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $57 −$26 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$56 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$40 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $72 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $289 +$85 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $183 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $196 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $36 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $58 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 643 history records