Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74be…27a4 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% $0
other 14% +$3
politics 9% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 31 +1.3% -8.3% 26% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.1% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage300d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? Sep 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $5 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $21 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $15 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $49 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $49 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $20 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $40 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.21 · official $37.21 (match) · 259 history records