Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74c1…ab9b
sports · 227 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$243 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$206 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$317
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses116 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)223 / 227
History coverage156d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 85¢ 85¢ $290 $289 −$1 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Down 51¢ 42¢ $29 $23 −$5 (-19%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$26 -51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$5 -38%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $130 +$9 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $45 +$19 +42%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $132 +$4 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $176 +$7 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$4 +37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $55 +$6 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$3 +80%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 +$2 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner May 11 $1 +$4 +343%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) May 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 10 $135 −$59 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 21 $3 −$2 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 21 $4 −$2 -46%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 21 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $581 −$83 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 28% +$1
sports 21% +$223
world 18% −$42
politics 17% +$81
other 14% −$33
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% −$17
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 51¢ $30 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $70 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $220 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $214 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $6 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 61¢ $19 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $15 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 17h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $5 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $3 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 23h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $10 23h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $55 24h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 45¢ $5 26h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $50 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $5 26h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No $2 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 35h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No $3 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 36h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 36h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.7% -25.5% 59% 27% -11.8%
≤30d 37 -17.7% -25.5% 59% 27% -11.8%
≤90d 44 -13.4% -21.7% 57% 30% -22.9%
all 223 +7.3% -2.9% 52% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 37% -7.8%
10% -12.2% 26% -16.7%
15% -20.7% 21% -24.7%
20% -28.4% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.16 · official $317.16 (match) · 898 history records