Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x74c4…e567 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+24%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$44
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$46
sports 22% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.9% +5.8% 57% 50% +11.3%
≤30d 18 +18.6% +7.3% 61% 50% +11.3%
≤90d 18 +18.6% +7.3% 61% 50% +11.3%
all 18 +18.6% +7.3% 61% 50% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 50% +11.3%
10% -3.0% 28% +0.6%
15% -12.3% 28% -9.1%
20% -20.9% 22% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $35 +$7 +21%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -33%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $28 +$5 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +176%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records