Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c4…92c0 crypto 578 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,278 (+27%) realized +$6,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%298W / 512L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day166.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 484 -79.5% -81.5% 12% 11% -94.5%
≤30d 810 -36.2% -42.3% 37% 34% -48.9%
≤90d 810 -36.2% -42.3% 37% 34% -48.9%
all 810 -36.2% -42.3% 37% 34% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 34% -48.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 30% -53.8%
15% -52.8% 25% -58.2%
20% -57.5% 21% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$53 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses298 / 512
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)810 / 578
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day166.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 810 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$13 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$74 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$14 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$34 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$76 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET Jun 17 $466 −$466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$56 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$40 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$72 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $635 −$635 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$160 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records