Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

74 0x74c7…144f other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$56 (+5%) realized +$58 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$131

7 days−$60

14 days−$117

30 days−$117

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+47.0%	+33.0%	69%	69%	-17.0%
≤30d	16	+19.4%	+8.1%	56%	56%	-23.0%
≤90d	16	+19.4%	+8.1%	56%	56%	-23.0%
all	16	+19.4%	+8.1%	56%	56%	-23.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.1%	56%	-23.0%
10%	-2.3%	56%	-30.4%
15%	-11.7%	44%	-37.1%
20%	-20.4%	25%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +28% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$35 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$279

Realized+$58

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage8d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	59¢	58¢	$282	$279	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Jun 29	$196	$0	-0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$71	+$19	+26%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$158	−$157	-99%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$74	+$35	+47%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$5	+$6	+109%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$58	−$11	-19%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$51	−$22	-43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$44	+$31	+70%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND	Jun 26	$32	+$11	+34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$8	+$6	+73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$11	+42%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 24	$3	+$10	+325%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 21	$48	−$47	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	59¢	$285	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	SELL Yes	77¢	$195	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$90	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	63¢	$158	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	76¢	$196	43h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$47	47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$29	47h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	67¢	$74	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$44	3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND	BUY	74¢	$32	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: 1st	BUY	26¢	$26	4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$58	5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$8	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$71	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$36	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$48	8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.44 · official $279.44 (match) · 36 history records