Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c7…779e crypto 30 markets active 15h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-42%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%5W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$15
sports 38% −$6
other 21% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -48.0% -52.9% 18% 18% -61.6%
≤30d 28 -48.0% -52.9% 18% 18% -61.6%
≤90d 28 -48.0% -52.9% 18% 18% -61.6%
all 28 -48.0% -52.9% 18% 18% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 18% -61.6%
10% -57.4% 18% -65.2%
15% -61.6% 14% -68.6%
20% -65.3% 14% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +186%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +223%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND United States vs. BUY 30¢ $11 14h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Switze BUY 27¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records