Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c8…e1aa crypto 144 markets active 2d ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$779 (-5%) realized −$774 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%50W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$70
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$73
other 31% −$37
politics 19% −$248
weather 6% −$623
sports 5% −$131
tech 3% +$95
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 65% +2.2%
≤30d 28 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 64% -14.6%
≤90d 28 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 64% -14.6%
all 143 -6.5% -15.4% 35% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 29% -14.8%
10% -23.5% 25% -23.0%
15% -30.9% 17% -30.4%
20% -37.6% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$37 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$774
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses50 / 93
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage240d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $24 +$7 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$20 +39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$28 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $40 +$11 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 08 $2,745 −$191 -7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $40 +$17 +42%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $40 +$5 +12%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $7 −$4 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $5 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $13 +$7 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 9? Jan 08 $4 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 9? Jan 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $11 +$7 +66%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 24 Dec 23 $23 −$11 -46%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 24 Dec 23 $35 −$6 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 24 Dec 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 24 Dec 23 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $4 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on December 16? Dec 13 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $27 −$6 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $46 −$6 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $24 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $14 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 8d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $781 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.29 · official $15.29 (match) · 824 history records