Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74ca…690d
weather · 744 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$990
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses729 / 5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)734 / 744
History coverage30d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day105.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 734 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$109
14 days−$238
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $218 $217 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $195 $193 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $181 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $167 $166 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on May 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on June 5? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 9? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on April 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 100¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on April 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $159 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 1 Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $185 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $179 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $183 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 23m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $110 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $104 28m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $55 47m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $224 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 52m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $194 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $83 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $104 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $34 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $61 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $44 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $51 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $135 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $181 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 733 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 734 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 734 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $989.53 · official $983.57 (match) · 3500 history records