Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
74 0x74cb…ae6d crypto 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4,687 (+99%) realized +$1,735 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%231W / 134L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$59
14 days+$68
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$284
world 20% +$788
other 16% +$309
politics 13% +$330
sports 1% +$30
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +33.7% +21.0% 62% 50% +8.3%
≤30d 75 +70.3% +54.1% 52% 45% +59.9%
≤90d 227 +91.8% +73.6% 63% 59% +36.7%
all 365 +86.2% +68.4% 63% 59% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +68.4% 59% +24.0%
10% ← realistic here +52.3% 51% +12.1%
15% +37.6% 46% +1.3%
20% +24.1% 39% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1,735
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses231 / 134
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)365 / 369
History coverage144d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$10 +107%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +300%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$16 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$8 -64%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $49 −$3 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$19 +64%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 09 $3 +$6 +216%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$26 +422%
Will any team get mega creeps at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $26 −$19 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$5 +367%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -93%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 01 $22 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $6 −$1 -18%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? May 30 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $8 +$8 +92%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? May 29 $16 −$4 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $6 −$1 -14%
Trump on $250 bill this year? May 28 $11 −$5 -42%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? May 28 $20 +$12 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 +$1 +122%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $4 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 18m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $9 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $16 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $15 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $8 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $9 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $5 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $4 51m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 74¢ $31 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 73¢ $31 2h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.87 · official $13.87 (match) · 3500 history records