Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74cc…be60 sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$496 (-5%) realized −$459 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%63W / 84L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$78
14 days−$102
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$111
world 33% −$38
crypto 16% −$452
other 11% −$206
politics 4% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.4% -36.1% 25% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 27 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 114 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 37% -12.1%
all 147 -14.6% -22.8% 43% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 33% -17.0%
10% -30.1% 31% -24.9%
15% -36.9% 27% -32.2%
20% -43.1% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$459
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses63 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage307d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $39 $1 −$37 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? Jun 27 $78 −$29 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $654 +$22 +3%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $85 −$63 -74%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $84 −$7 -9%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 18 $109 −$25 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $127 −$4 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 08 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 04 $80 −$2 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +68%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $160 +$137 +86%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $152 −$120 -79%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $15 +$16 +105%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $156 −$5 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $10 +$5 +47%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? May 28 $119 −$84 -71%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $96 −$48 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $10 +$4 +35%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $10 +$12 +122%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $10 +$7 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $238 −$19 -8%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $552 −$147 -27%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $381 +$26 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 24 $192 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $597 +$19 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $802 −$5 -1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $232 +$56 +24%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 23 $171 −$6 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 23 $106 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $220 +$17 +8%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $121 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $48 1h
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $78 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $55 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 37h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 7¢ $22 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $0 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $27 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $3 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $24 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $3 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $1 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 27¢ $27 3d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? SELL Yes 42¢ $77 5d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY Yes 45¢ $84 6d
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $85 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $119 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $129 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $124 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $19 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $104 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $127 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $121 17d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $98 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $93 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $1.27 (match) · 520 history records