Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74cd…293d crypto 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%140W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$451
crypto 32% +$13
culture 9% +$94
sports 4% +$53
other 2% +$57
tech 2% +$32
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% -35.0%
≤90d 208 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 38% -14.6%
all 567 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 23% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 23% -11.3%
10% -28.0% 22% -19.8%
15% -34.9% 21% -27.5%
20% -41.3% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses140 / 427
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)567 / 567
History coverage578d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 567 Trades
no open positions (401 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $77 −$76 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 10 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 10 $26 −$25 -95%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$40 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 02 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 13 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 13 $85 +$79 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 06 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 39¢ $31 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $71 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1285 history records