Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74d3…c97f other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 710d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$177
crypto 22% +$16
politics 15% −$99
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% +23.7%
≤30d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% +23.7%
≤90d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% +23.7%
all 10 -16.8% -24.8% 20% 20% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 20% -3.9%
10% -32.0% 20% -13.1%
15% -38.5% 20% -21.5%
20% -44.6% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$23 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$1,220
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)10 / 31
History coverage710d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Up 49¢ 56¢ $200 $227 +$27 (+14%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Up 50¢ 53¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+8%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$92 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? Feb 19 $141 +$141 +100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11? Feb 11 $199 −$58 -29%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 22 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 15 $60 −$20 -34%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 15 $200 −$59 -30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 48¢ $155 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 0¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 20¢ $3 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $99 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $153 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 17h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $71 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.80 · official $1,219.84 (match) · 53 history records