Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74d5…195b weather 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (355 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$407 (-22%) realized −$407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%13W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day355.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$225
weather 42% −$283
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (355 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 11% -36.8%
≤30d 64 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 11% -36.8%
≤90d 64 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 11% -36.8%
all 64 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 11% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover355.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 11% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 6% -42.9%
15% -47.5% 5% -48.4%
20% -52.7% 3% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses13 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day355.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $109 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $120 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 28 $93 −$29 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? Jun 28 $24 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $99 +$122 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $72 −$58 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $26 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? Jun 27 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 27 $20 −$4 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Jun 27 $21 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $108 −$66 -61%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? Jun 27 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 27 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Jun 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July Jun 27 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 27? Jun 27 $42 −$39 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? Jun 27 $35 +$3 +7%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July Jun 27 $24 −$17 -72%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4 Jun 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July Jun 27 $20 −$16 -78%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026? Jun 27 $12 −$10 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27? Jun 27 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$62 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 29? Jun 27 $19 −$8 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 28? Jun 27 $3 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? Jun 27 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 29? Jun 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $43 −$10 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 28? Jun 27 $12 −$4 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records