Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x74d8…9ba7 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+0%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%27W / 4L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,561per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$2
economics 18% −$13
other 1% +$128
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.6% -5.3% 67% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 18 +3.8% -6.1% 78% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 10% -9.3%
all 31 +3.5% -6.4% 87% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 10% -9.3%
10% -15.4% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$960) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$6,164
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses27 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1,561
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $696 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $960 +$2 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $309 +$92 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $732 +$2 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $164 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 23 $1,847 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $8,687 −$13 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 23 $8,742 −$11 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8,760 −$11 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 22 $8,772 −$11 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Apr 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will DtMF - Bad Bunny be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Feb 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 29? Jan 15 $7,381 +$7 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 22? Dec 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $197 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $133 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $157 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,164.18 · official $6,164.18 (match) · 131 history records