Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x74df…2b11 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$214 (+25%) realized +$252 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$117
other 10% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 59% +21.4%
≤30d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 59% +21.4%
≤90d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 59% +21.4%
all 29 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 59% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.0% 59% +21.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.0% 59% +9.8%
15% -6.0% 59% -0.8%
20% -15.3% 55% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$18 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$252
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 64¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+23%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 75¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 44¢ 62¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 69¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+60%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 43¢ 96¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+124%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 42¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 52¢ $59 $6 −$53 (-89%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 36¢ $35 $4 −$31 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $30 +$33 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $30 +$44 +146%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$45 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$18 +180%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $35 +$67 +188%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$17 +90%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $71 −$69 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$13 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $15 +$17 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $15 +$25 +165%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $20 +$23 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $15 +$24 +158%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 25m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 43¢ $15 34m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 36m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $35 36m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 40m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 36¢ $35 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $60 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $15 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $30 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 52¢ $19 20h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $15 22h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $50 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $50 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $30 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $10 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $20 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $15 25h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $15 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $10 27h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 40h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 40h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $15 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.94 · official $199.77 (match) · 57 history records