Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74e4…a3dc crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.7% -28.3% 36% 21% -21.0%
≤30d 40 +18.1% +6.8% 52% 28% -14.8%
≤90d 40 +18.1% +6.8% 52% 28% -14.8%
all 40 +18.1% +6.8% 52% 28% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 28% -14.8%
10% -3.4% 20% -22.9%
15% -12.7% 15% -30.4%
20% -21.3% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $106 +$122 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 31 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $32 +$43 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 31 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 31 $32 +$65 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 30 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 29 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $26 +$14 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $38 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records