Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74e9…3886 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-2%) realized −$56 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$72
14 days+$73
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$93
world 11% −$20
other 4% −$83
politics 0% +$22
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +22.6% +10.9% 78% 44% +0.0%
≤30d 22 +8.8% -1.6% 59% 36% -0.1%
≤90d 62 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 37% -14.5%
all 62 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 37% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 37% -14.5%
10% -19.2% 34% -22.7%
15% -27.0% 26% -30.1%
20% -34.2% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage69d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 32¢ 48¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 36¢ 49¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $167 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $166 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $141 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $142 +$33 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $11 −$11 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $90 +$34 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 23 $4 +$7 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 23 $5 +$23 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 20 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 18 $10 +$22 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $4 +$19 +452%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 13 $60 −$44 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 08 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $10 +$16 +152%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 23 $134 −$91 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 23 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 23 $50 −$48 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $154 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $141 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $142 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $80 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $53 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 20d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 2¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $124 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $90 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.70 · official $59.69 · 134 history records