Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ea…b265 weather 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,200 (+11%) realized +$1,206 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%146W / 246L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$850
7 days+$1,411
14 days+$1,310
30 days+$1,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$386
sports 11% +$750
other 7% +$529
crypto 1% +$83
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +85.7% +68.0% 96% 96% +78.4%
≤30d 40 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 62% +64.7%
≤90d 305 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 35% +3.2%
all 392 -22.9% -30.2% 37% 30% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 30% +0.6%
10% -36.9% 26% -9.1%
15% -43.0% 23% -17.8%
20% -48.6% 19% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$1,206
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses146 / 246
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)392 / 396
History coverage98d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $423 $427 +$4 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $161 $158 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 46¢ 42¢ $132 $123 −$9 (-7%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $50 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $143 +$154 +108%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $62 +$338 +549%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $97 +$102 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$45 +43%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$83 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 +$104 +108%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 +$104 +108%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 +$115 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 +$38 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $134 +$166 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 21 Apr 22 $60 +$22 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21 Apr 22 $18 +$32 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21? Apr 22 $75 +$20 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 22 $29 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 21 Apr 22 $28 −$25 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 19? Apr 21 $2 +$5 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 21 $13 +$6 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 19? Apr 21 $12 +$10 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19 Apr 21 $24 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 46¢ $93 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $298 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $41 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 13h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 13h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $97 15h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $143 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $119 37h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $96 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $96 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $47 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $85 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $434 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $134 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $48 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.91 · official $760.21 (match) · 2048 history records