Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74eb…4c90 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$17
politics 16% −$3
sports 7% +$11
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -2.3% -11.6% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 123 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage91d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $138 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $242 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $238 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $117 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $362 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 32h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.18 · official $73.18 (match) · 336 history records