Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ec…0959 crypto 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,915 (-4%) realized −$1,908 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%100W / 64L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$699
7 days−$699
14 days−$746
30 days−$2,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$510
sports 32% −$3,122
other 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.0% -52.0% 50% 0% -42.3%
≤30d 69 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 48% -17.4%
≤90d 164 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 45% -16.0%
all 164 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 45% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 45% -16.0%
10% -19.5% 37% -24.0%
15% -27.3% 27% -31.3%
20% -34.4% 20% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$215 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2,081
Realized−$1,908
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses100 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage37d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $2,087 $2,081 −$7 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $643 −$643 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $586 +$58 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $573 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $126 −$126 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $173 −$47 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$9 +17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 06 $885 −$885 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $2,953 −$2,953 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) May 30 $718 +$167 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 29 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $12 +$4 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $372 −$372 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 29 $234 −$222 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 29 $200 +$172 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 May 29 $216 −$16 -7%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $279 −$63 -23%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 May 29 $193 +$86 +45%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 May 29 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $107 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $245 +$68 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 28 $259 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $231 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $208 +$23 +11%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 28 $254 −$46 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 28 $305 +$423 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $44 −$25 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 28 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $772 +$373 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $416 −$416 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $229 +$55 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $540 +$249 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $205 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $182 +$195 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $105 +$139 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 28 $156 +$175 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 28 $94 +$142 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $520 +$516 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 28 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $260 +$230 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 28 $106 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 28 $771 −$771 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $671 2m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,455 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $643 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $586 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $586 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $141 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $143 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $126 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $126 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 9¢ $173 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $76 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $60 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 20d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 78¢ $12 27d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 79¢ $47 27d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 79¢ $280 27d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 79¢ $373 27d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 78¢ $747 27d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,494 27d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 59¢ $885 27d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 99¢ $886 27d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 79¢ $718 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $31 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,080.56 · official $2,080.56 (match) · 448 history records