trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-30%) |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | Under | 58¢ | 57¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | Up | 23¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $38 | $0 | −$38 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $5 | +$7 | +134% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $9 | +$4 | +41% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | Mar 16 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 09 | $42 | −$12 | -28% |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho | Feb 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Feb 01 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Feb 01 | $89 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jan 18 | $33 | +$6 | +18% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 16 | $32 | −$20 | -62% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Jan 16 | $30 | −$9 | -30% |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Jan 13 | $33 | −$32 | -98% |
| Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? | Jan 13 | $15 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Jan 13 | $20 | −$3 | -13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +56.7% | +41.7% | 67% | 67% | +39.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +56.7% | +41.7% | 67% | 67% | +39.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +17.5% | +6.3% | 50% | 50% | +29.3% |
| all | 14 | -25.1% | -32.3% | 21% | 21% | -36.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.3% | 21% | -36.7% |
| 10% | -38.8% | 14% | -42.7% |
| 15% | -44.7% | 14% | -48.3% |
| 20% | -50.1% | 7% | -53.3% |