Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ee…2fe3 other 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 246L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 23% −$22
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$16
world 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage140d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $486 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $510 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $579 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $272 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $739 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $392 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $278 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $223 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $417 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $452 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 21h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 25h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 26h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 27h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 38h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 39h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 40h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 42h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 44h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.10 · official $50.10 (match) · 1448 history records