Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f1…16a8 other 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$115,210 (+22%) realized +$110,160 · open +$5,050
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate40%99W / 151L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day133.9pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$70,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$35,128
other 31% +$6,802
crypto 9% +$281
politics 5% −$164
sports 4% +$11,006
tech 0% +$185
economics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +11.6% +1.0% 23% 15% -30.3%
≤30d 250 +41.6% +28.1% 40% 19% -3.1%
≤90d 250 +41.6% +28.1% 40% 19% -3.1%
all 250 +41.6% +28.1% 40% 19% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.1% 19% -3.1%
10% +15.9% 17% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here +4.7% 17% -20.9%
20% -5.6% 16% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +95% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$696 vs −$224 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$70,489
Realized+$110,160
Unrealized+$5,050
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses99 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions362
Markets (closed)250 / 398
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day133.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 362 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 1¢ 86¢ $96 $7,303 +$7,207 (+7508%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $5,935 $5,913 −$22 (-0%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $3,545 $3,438 −$108 (-3%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 97¢ $44 $2,585 +$2,541 (+5814%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 62¢ $2,502 $1,896 −$605 (-24%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 71¢ $1,874 $1,741 −$133 (-7%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1,620 $1,596 −$24 (-1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,375 $1,517 +$142 (+10%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 74¢ $1,454 $1,495 +$41 (+3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 74¢ $491 $1,255 +$764 (+156%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $47 $1,239 +$1,192 (+2532%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,200 $1,215 +$15 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,204 $1,192 −$12 (-1%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,063 $1,129 +$67 (+6%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 69¢ $1,072 $1,121 +$49 (+5%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,062 $1,086 +$25 (+2%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,028 $1,057 +$29 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 32¢ $41 $1,048 +$1,007 (+2460%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $914 $1,028 +$115 (+13%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $738 $747 +$9 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $678 $723 +$44 (+7%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? Yes 86¢ 50¢ $1,222 $715 −$508 (-42%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 72¢ $684 $713 +$29 (+4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $745 $708 −$37 (-5%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 95¢ $520 $621 +$101 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 23 $113 −$113 -100%
BPL: Durdanto Dhaka vs Rangpur Riders (Game 1) - Team Top Batter Rangp Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 23 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? Jun 23 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Brighton finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $1 −$9 -1203%
Will Giorgia Meloni be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. France end in a draw? Jun 23 $233 −$233 -100%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oxford United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Brentford finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Lea Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $98 +$302 +309%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14? Jun 23 $88 +$283 +323%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $1 −$9 -1203%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Reform UK win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? Jun 23 $208 −$14 -7%
Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 23 $14 +$135 +980%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 23 $11 −$268 -2516%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2,082 −$2,082 -100%
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15? Jun 23 $92 +$274 +297%
Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in th Jun 23 $194 −$212 -109%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $449 −$795 -177%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 23 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $165 −$149 -90%
Will Trump say "Too late" during Fed chair announcement? Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $1,836 −$400 -22%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $393 1h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $280 1h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 96¢ $17 15h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $61 15h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 94¢ $193 15h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 98¢ $185 16h
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? BUY No 97¢ $144 16h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY No 63¢ $94 16h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 16h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 16h
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 16h
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 16h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $22 16h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $67 16h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $48 16h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL Yes 0¢ $21 17h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $6 17h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,741 17h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,489.19 · official $70,457.47 (match) · 3500 history records