Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f2…317c crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%42W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$27
sports 2% −$2
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.4% -18.9% 33% 33% -34.5%
≤30d 12 -10.4% -18.9% 33% 33% -34.5%
≤90d 130 -8.1% -16.8% 32% 26% -12.4%
all 130 -8.1% -16.8% 32% 26% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 26% -12.4%
10% -24.8% 18% -20.8%
15% -32.1% 11% -28.5%
20% -38.7% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses42 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage52d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 69¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$2 +188%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4AM ET Apr 24 $23 +$5 +20%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 24 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 -24%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -29%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 4AM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4AM ET Apr 24 $9 −$1 -8%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -26%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $8 −$3 -40%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$5 +91%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +142%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3AM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3AM ET Apr 24 $11 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$2 -59%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$2 -29%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -20%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $14 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $31 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $5 7h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY OpTic Texas 57¢ $3 30h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 30h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 33¢ $1 30h
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Miami Heretics 35¢ $1 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 34¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $3 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Phoenix Mercury 22¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $1 3d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 51d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 51d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 51d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 51d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 1048 history records