Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f5…0f06 politics 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%75W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$7
other 26% −$9
sports 15% −$2
crypto 9% −$4
world 5% −$10
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 155 -1.5% -10.9% 19% 0% -10.3%
all 276 -1.8% -11.1% 27% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses75 / 201
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage144d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $31 −$5 -17%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 30 $7 $0 -3%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $36 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $71 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 29 $41 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 28 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 26m
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 26m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 48m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 48m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $9 3h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 29h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 96¢ $8 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $9 18d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $10 18d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $10 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 67¢ $7 18d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 67¢ $7 18d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $8 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.79 · official $15.79 (match) · 1476 history records