Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x74f5…8cdf other 65 markets active 3h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$24
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$31
world 15% +$51
politics 14% +$7
sports 5% −$14
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.4% -9.2% 69% 54% -6.1%
≤30d 43 -1.9% -11.2% 70% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 43 -1.9% -11.2% 70% 49% -8.7%
all 43 -1.9% -11.2% 70% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -8.7%
10% -19.7% 21% -17.5%
15% -27.5% 16% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,176
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)43 / 65
History coverage19d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $244 $243 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $216 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $167 $167 +$1 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $134 $139 +$4 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 73¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$18 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$6 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$20 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$34 +86%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $46 +$3 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $45 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $20 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $20 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $20 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $18 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $19 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $3 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 40h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.99 · official $1,176.00 (match) · 140 history records