Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f9…38ae other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$118 (-26%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$105
world 3% −$16
sports 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.5% -7.2% 60% 60% -30.4%
≤30d 15 +2.5% -7.2% 60% 60% -30.4%
≤90d 15 +2.5% -7.2% 60% 60% -30.4%
all 15 +2.5% -7.2% 60% 60% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 60% -30.4%
10% -16.1% 60% -37.1%
15% -24.2% 47% -43.2%
20% -31.6% 33% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$38 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $12 +$14 +117%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $26 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 43¢ $12 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $19 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $10 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $17 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $11 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records