Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74fb…623c other 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+4%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1
sports 12% $0
world 8% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -48.5% -53.4% 33% 33% -53.0%
≤30d 8 -40.8% -46.4% 38% 38% -46.0%
≤90d 11 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 55% -14.6%
all 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 67% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 67% -8.0%
10% -19.4% 44% -16.8%
15% -27.1% 39% -24.9%
20% -34.3% 39% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3 +$1 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S Jan 27 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 74d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 75d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 85d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 97d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 98d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 98d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 98d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 98d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 98d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 98d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 98d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 109d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 109d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 143d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 144d
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S SELL G2 Gozen 100¢ $1 144d
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S BUY G2 Gozen 90¢ $1 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records